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Recession Fears: JPMorgan Raises Probability to 40% As Investors Panic

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Tech Stocks and Crypto Take a Beating Amid Economic Uncertainty

Fears of a looming U.S. recession sent shockwaves through financial markets on March 10, triggering a sharp sell-off in both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. Despite the White House’s efforts to calm investor nerves, risk assets took a major hit as leading Wall Street banks adjusted their economic forecasts.

JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk as Economic Worries Mount

Economists at JPMorgan Chase now estimate a 40% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, up from their previous 30% projection. The revised outlook, reported by The Wall Street Journal, reflects growing concerns over what analysts describe as “extreme U.S. policies.”

Goldman Sachs analysts also increased their 12-month recession probability, raising it from 15% to 20%. The bank warned that if the Trump administration maintains its current policy trajectory despite deteriorating economic data, the risk could climb even higher.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley downgraded its growth projections, predicting U.S. GDP will expand by just 1.5% in 2025, with an even weaker 1.2% forecast for 2026. The bank also raised its inflation expectations, signaling further challenges ahead for policymakers and investors.

White House Attempts to Downplay Recession Fears

Despite these grim predictions, the White House is pushing back on recession concerns. Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, sought to reassure the public in a March 10 interview with CNBC, arguing that while short-term economic data may show volatility, the broader outlook remains strong.

“There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data”, Hassett stated.

President Donald Trump also weighed in, characterizing the current economic climate as a “period of transition” during a Fox News interview on March 9. However, these assurances have done little to ease investor anxiety.

Even blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket chimed in on the debate, calling recession odds “the best-looking chart in finance right now.”

Market Sell-Off Wipes Out Billions in Value

Wall Street’s so-called “Trump bump” has officially evaporated, with the S&P 500 now trading below levels seen before the November 5, 2024, election. The index has shed nearly 10% from its February peak, while the Nasdaq has plunged into correction territory with a 14% drop in just three weeks.

All major U.S. stock markets closed deep in the red on March 10. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% to its lowest point since September, the Nasdaq plummeted 4%—marking its worst single-day loss since 2022—and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled nearly 900 points, a 2.1% decline.

Bitcoin and Tech Giants Take Heavy Losses

The crypto market wasn’t spared from the carnage: Bitcoin dipped 4% to a low of $76,784 before staging a minor recovery to $79,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market capitalization shrank by 7.5%, shedding roughly $240 billion and sinking to its lowest level since early November.

Tech stocks suffered a brutal sell-off: Especially the so-called “Magnificent 7” — America’s largest tech firms — collectively losing more than $750 billion in market value in a single day. Tesla was the hardest hit, plunging 15% and becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.

Other major tech players also took heavy hits: AI leader Nvidia fell 5.1%, Apple dropped 4.9%, Meta declined 4.4%, and Alphabet slid 4.5%.

As markets continue to react to economic uncertainty, all eyes will be on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy decisions, which could determine whether the downturn accelerates or stabilizes in the weeks ahead.

Eva Zelenov
Eva Zelenov is a dynamic strategist at the crossroads of technology, communications, and high-level finance. With a strong foundation in investment and government relations, she navigates complex landscapes with precision. Her sharp analytical mind, relentless curiosity, and knack for uncovering intricate details make her insights both compelling and invaluable.

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